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There are, nevertheless, a few areas of cooperation with Russia that the Japanese government still intends to maintain as long as possible. Green and Scott Kennedy (May 16, 2022) In pursuit of this agenda, Abe agreed on a new approach to relations with Russia during a visit to Sochi in May 2016. Others are afraid that exposing themselves as Russians, even by openly opposing Putins attack on Ukraine, would make them targets of verbal abuse in Japan, he said. If he loses, it may be the beginning of his end. Business Leaders Not Ready for the Next U.S.-China Crisis, Michael J. Significant long-term gain should be prioritized over minor short-term pain. As an energy-hungry yet resource-poor island nation that depends on imports to meet its energy needs, Japan finds itself in a significant dilemma. Yennie Lindgren has previously held research positions at the Norwegian Institute of Defense Studies (IFS), United Nations UniversityTokyo, the U.S. EmbassyTokyo and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. What is more important, however, is the realization that defensive planning alone will not deter an aggressor. Hardly so. Tokyo declares red alert as it tallies 31,878 patients in a day, Medical care close to buckling in some areas in face of 7th wave, Parents of daughter bullied at school sue city over her suicide, More details revealed on the gun, bullets used in Abe shooting, Japan logs more than 150,000 COVID-19 cases, hits record high, Tokyo Olympic organizing exec snared in bribery allegations, Three long-lost paintings by Taro Okamoto found in Paris, Joint custody eyed as option by Justice Ministry after divorce, Head of facility for disabled kids arrested for confining boy, VOX POPULI: State funeral for Abe will only serve to extol his actions in life, Running out of cash, Yamagami decided in early July to kill Abe, Sea turtles found stabbed on beach in Okinawa; link to fishers cited, Onkyos decline a cautionary tale for Japanese manufacturers, Suspect in Abe slaying tried to kill self so kin would get payout, Relative: Mother of Abe murder suspect donated 100 million yen, Expert: Gun used to kill Abe made with careful calculations, Foreign-born assemblymen try to make a difference, Yamagami described as strange before Abe shooting, Kishida: Up to 9 nuclear reactors to go online by winter, Abes suspected killer led life of hard times because of group. Tel: +81-3-6213-0550
It is because what Putin and his armed forces have done in Ukraine has been so unjustifiable, both legally and ethically, that no pro-Russia pundits can speak out in Japan and defend the war crimes or the crimes against humanity that are taking place. To encourage Russia to accept this compromise, Abes new approach featured three further elements. His books include Japan, Russia and their Territorial Dispute: The Northern Delusion (Routledge 2017), Japans Foreign Relations in Asia, edited with Jeff Kingston (Routledge 2018), and The Abe Legacy, edited with Guibourg Delamotte and Robert Dujarric (Lexington 2021). The war in Ukraine is changing the mindset of Japanese citizens and forcing them, whether they like it or not, to gradually reconsider their preferred, but unrealistic post-WWII pacifism for numerous reasons. Specifically, there is strong public support for economic sanctions (73.7 percent), even at the risk of impacting the Japanese economy and livelihood. She surmised that the vandals targeted the store because of its connection to Russia and the famous square in Moscow. Google told The Asahi Shimbun that it removes messages and reviews when it confirms they are not based on actual experiences or truthful information. Zelenskyy called the latest Russian offensive the Battle of Donbas, emphasizing that the war has entered a critical phase. This was followed by a meeting at the prime ministers office on February 9 at which Russia-Japan relations and the Ukraine crisis were again top of the agenda. In my view, there were two major reasons behind this. The manager said she is happy to see the increase in business. She wrote on social media, I sincerely hope that peace visits both countries and they become friendly., (This article was written by Natsuki Edogawa, Azusa Ushio and Yusuke Saito. Downside of High Prices: Five Trends in Global Gas, Ben Cahill (June 2, 2022) In this sense, the situation in Ukraine today shows how valuable Japans mutual security treaty with the United States has been. ), Russians join Ukrainians in Tokyo to protest war in Ukraine, Show of support for Ukraine comes from far and wide, Blue and yellow: Cities across Japan light up to support Ukraine, Angst, anger rising among Ukrainian expats across Japan, Ukrainian posts YouTube video critical of crisis in her homeland, Japan moving to supply Ukraine with defense equipment. We will take steps to phase out (Russian oil imports) in a manner that minimizes adverse effects on peoples lives and business activities. His recent publications include Russia-China relations entering into a new stage (in Japanese) (Monthly Journal Voice Feb. 2020), Putins Greater Eurasia Strategy Prospects for the changing world order from Eurasian perspective (in Japanese) (Monthly Journal Voice June 2019), and Japan and the Development of Russian Far East (Valdai Papers No.106, Sept. 2019). That said, in Japan, some influential pundits once asserted that it was better for the Ukrainians to surrender, rather than to fight, to save the lives of innocent civilians. Yet, after Singapore, instead of progress towards a deal, Russias stance considerably hardened. Dr. Wrenn Yennie Lindgren The Asahi Shimbun aims to achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls through its Gender Equality Declaration. This is a crushing disappointment for Japanese former residents of these islands whose average age is now over 86. EMAIL: press-info@canon-igs.org. There are two main reasons. The change to the Russian constitution was a clear sign that Japans new approach had failed, yet, even after Abe left office in September 2020, his successors Suga Yoshihide (2020 to 2021) and Kishida Fumio (2021 to present) maintained the pretence that the policy was still in operation due to the influence that Abe, who is now head of the Liberal Democratic Partys largest faction, continues to wield within the party. This was driven by his urgent desire to resolve the territorial dispute over the Russian-held Southern Kuril Islands which were seized by Soviet forces at the end of World War II but continue to be claimed by Japan as its Northern Territories. The ordinary Japanese person seems to be convinced that Russia cannot be trusted. The Spear and the Shield? Copyright The Asahi Shimbun Company. For instance, Prime Minister Kishida met Abe for dinner at Tokyos Palace Hotel on January 11, 2022 to listen to his advice on Japans Russia policy. Given that the Abe administration only imposed symbolic economic sanctions against Russia in the Ukraine crisis of 2014, it is fair to say that the decision of the Kishida administration this time is a major shift in Japans long-standing policy toward Russia. The European Union, heavily reliant on Russian imports, has committed to cutting 90 percent of Russian oil imports by the end of 2022 and has rolled out plans to upgrade its Green Deal climate policy to meet energy needs. In the case that there is no LNG supply from Russia, it could be difficult for Japan to secure a sufficient amount of LNG. Can Russia Execute a Gas Pivot to Asia? Nikos Tsafos (May 4, 2022) China warily eyes Japans defense and diplomacy moves, Under Kishida, Japans security reforms gather speed, The Steep Challenge of Mending Japan-South Korea Relations, How Japan Keeps a Lid on Anti-China Sentiment. Furthermore, both Putin and Lavrov are now international pariahs, who are personally sanctioned by the United States, European Union, Canada, and United Kingdom. Ukraine also has no real allies as it is not a member of NATO. This was evident in 2014 when, after Russias occupation of Crimea, Japan was extremely slow to react and then introduced only token sanctions. The woman is also thinking about her homeland. It is thus unthinkable that the Japanese prime minister can resume courting them in the way Abes government did. Media
Mr. Taisuke Abiru Indeed, when Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Tokyo shortly after the attack, the Japanese government confronted him, not with criticism, but with a birthday cake. These are all invaluable lessons the conflict in Ukraine has taught the people of Japan. I support the governments position on maintaining energy interests in Russia, Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 in particular. I rather consider this as a new political normal in Japan which will be irreversible in the years to come. On 27 February, the Japanese announced that it too would subject Putin to sanctions. However, when it came to energy, Tokyo initially chose not to follow suit, citing both concerns about rising prices affecting Japanese livelihoods and geopolitical risks associated with China taking advantage of the market. Abe even tried to give Putin a puppy but was rebuffed. Those brave and patriotic men and women of Ukraine have shown that to protect a country, the people must be willing and able to fight. He was born in 1969. 2022.05.13, Many Japanese are now realizing that the best military defense might include a good offense. Line of Advantage: Japans Grand Strategy in the Era of Abe Shinz (April 26, 2022) That said, however, alliances do not always work as intended and prevent war. I have been targeted by baseless slander and told that Russians should leave Japan, Kobara, 29, told The Asahi Shimbun on Feb. 26, two days after Russia invaded Ukraine. This is also what the Japanese public wants, with roughly 86 percent of citizens favoring sanctions and a firm stance against Moscow. In 2015, he also argued that Japan should drop sanctions and recognize Russian jurisdiction over Crimea in return for progress on the Northern Territories issue. One customer, a 28-year-old woman who lives in Tokyos Shinagawa Ward, said she learned about the vandalism on social media and decided to visit the shop for the first time. Washington effectively deterred Russia by declassifying and sharing top secret information related to the Russian military. This has repeatedly been used by Moscow as a source of leverage. He joined SPF after his work at the Moscow office of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation and the Tokyo Foundation. 5-1 Marunouchi 1-chome, Chiyoda-ku,
Beijing, of course, is holding its breath to see how the war unfolds. A website where people can review and rate shops and restaurants using Google Maps now contains many harassing comments and insults directed at Russia-related businesses. To begin with, an emphasis on deepening economic cooperation with Russia is now impossible, not least because on February 25, Japan announced three categories of sanctions: 1) visa bans and asset freezes on designated individuals related to Russia; 2) asset freezes on three Russian banks (VEB.RF, Promsvyazbank, Bank Rossiya); 3) restrictions on the export to Russia of dual-use goods such as semiconductors. In the short term, replacing Russian sources will require some strategic thinking that is already underway. In the context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, this argument now looks risible. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1518226592045-0'); }); googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1518226653270-0'); }); FIGURE SKATING/ Hanyu plans as a pro to become better, stronger and land a quad, The lion is king of all it surveys either in the wild or in captivity, Gunman was just 5 meters behind Abe when he got off 2nd fatal shot. Additionally, the two small islands targeted by Abe Shikotan and Habomai (which is actually a group of islets) account for only 7 percent of the disputed landmass.
Obviously, Putin, who has just ordered an unprovoked occupation of a sovereign country, is not going to agree to transfer territory to a U.S. ally. Fortunately, they were roundly criticized and the argument was dropped. RESOLVED: Japan Is Entering a Period of Political Instability (September 2021), Strengthening the U.S.-Japan Alliance: Perspective from Two Ambassadors (May 9, 2022) No reproduction or republication without written permission. The Kishida administration of Japan, along with other G7 countries, has imposed unprecedented levels of economic sanctions against Russia since February 24, 2022 when Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine. The Russian leaders strategic miscalculations have been costly. Nevertheless, the United States and other NATO members are providing military assistance to Ukraine while not directly involving their military forces in the war. Moreover, the peace treaty negotiations had already been stalled since the end of the Abe administration.
Some people even offered to create a new sign or repair the damaged one. Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS) is a fully independent Think Tank.The opinions expressed or implied in these articles are solely those of the author and have not been commissioned or endorsed by Canon. We have received so much support every day and are encouraged by the warm thoughts, she said. This entailed 27 meetings, as well as an invitation for Putin to visit Abes hometown in Yamaguchi prefecture in December 2016. After Russia invaded Ukraine, he wrote on his social media accounts, I hope this nightmare ends soon and As a Russian, too, this is unacceptable..
Even as Russian troops amassed on Ukraines borders, Japans government persisted with this failing policy. Japan and the European Union are committed to ensuring each others security of LNG supply, and the possibility for cooperation with Quad allies, such as Australia, is also in progress. His main area of research is Japans foreign policy and especially Japan-Russia relations. Her research has been featuredin:The Pacific Review, Asian Politics & Policy,The Hague Journal of Diplomacy,Asian Perspective, Japanese Journal of Political Science, Polar Geography and The Journal of Eurasian Studies. Yet, there has been little action to decouple from Russian energy sources despite Japans relatively minor dependence, compared to European countries, for example. In the 27th issue of the Debating Japan newsletter series, the CSIS Japan Chair invited Taisuke Abiru, senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, and Wrenn Yennie Lindgren, senior research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, to assess Japans investments in Russian oil and gas and whether it should fully divest from Russian energy. James D.J. Strategic Japan 2022: Competition in New Domains (April 8, 2022) A country cannot properly defend itself without maintaining combat readiness, especially when it comes to offensive military capabilities.
For years, Japanese governments have been reluctant to stand up to Russia for fear that it could hamper the progress of territorial negotiations. The reality is that, under Putins regime, there is zero prospect of Japan achieving a favorable territorial settlement. In seeking to finally settle this issue, Abe no doubt had an eye on his legacy, yet he was also motivated by strategic considerations. Visit this page for the latest news on Japans battle with the novel coronavirus pandemic. Japan vehemently condemns Russian aggression, which is a grave breach of international humanitarian law and war crimes for which Russia needs to be strictly held accountable. It is a blatant contradiction to state that Japan is opposed to Russias violent military action and heinous war crimes and then cooperate with state-owned enterprises on energy projects.
First, Abe strived to develop relations of personal trust with Russian president Vladimir Putin. The second reason is that even if Japan relinquishes its interests in Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 as part of economic sanctions against Russia, it is highly likely that countries that have not imposed economic sanctions against Russia, such as China and India, will acquire those interests. First, the magnitude of the seriousness of what happened in Ukraine this time was totally different from that of 2014. Ordinary people in Japan are beginning to realize this. Green (March 1, 2022), RESOLVED: Japan Should Focus on Increasing Indigenous Defense Production (March 2022) Dr Browns work has been published in several academic journals, including International Affairs, Asia Policy, International Politics, Post-Soviet Affairs, Europe-Asia Studies, Problems of Post-Communism, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, and Politics. The merits of this approach were already in question, but Russias invasion of Ukraine have made it untenable. A woman who manages a Russian food shop called Aka-no-hiroba (red square) in Tokyos Ginza district tweeted in early March that her business was vandalized and a store sign was damaged. Russian president Vladimir Putins violent attack on Ukraine in late February immediately sent a number of shocks throughout the international system, not least through the global energy markets, where Russia is a major supplier. On the very day of the election in December 2012 that returned him to power, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo made explicit that relations with Russia would be a leading priority of his foreign policy. Therefore, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida felt it easier than former prime minister Shinzo Abe to make this decision in favor of cooperation with G7 countries. Can Japan Take the Lead in Governing Digital Trade. For this reason, both Suga and Kishida were hesitant to openly break with Abes Russia policy, though they devoted less energy to it. Lets explore the Japanese capital from the viewpoint of wheelchair users and people with disabilities with Barry Joshua Grisdale.
He said it hurts when he sees such negative remarks against him, but he decided to continue speaking his mind on social media because if I dont say anything, it will make me look like I am supporting the war.. The Prospects for a U.S.-Japan Technology Security Alliance (March 23, 2022), U.S. It is hard to believe that an ally would protect a nation whose people are not willing to sacrifice their own blood to fight off an invasion. In March, the United States announced that it would prohibit the import of Russian oil, gas, and coal, as well as new investments in Russias energy sector, and the European Union is now following suit with its own sanctions package. Therefore, withdrawal from energy projects in Russia would be more costly to Japan itself than it is to Russia. This will necessitate a major rethink of Japans Russia policy. The failure to resolve this dispute means that, despite the passage of over 75 years, the sides are yet to conclude a peace treaty. Although Russia is the worlds third-biggest producer of oil (after the United States and Saudi Arabia) and the largest exporter of gas, it only accounts for 3.6 percent of crude and 8.8 percent of LNG imports in Japan. Foreign Affairs and National Security
One notable difference is the silence of those pro-Russia scholars and politicians who had been vocal in promoting bilateral ties with Moscow. Your browser does not support JavaScript, or it is disabledPlease check the site policy for more information. (Yusuke Saito). The Japanese governments stance has not changed even after the G7 summit on May 8 issued a statement that member countries of G7 were gradually reducing their energy dependence on Russia. The Japanese leader also faithfully attended Russias Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok each year between 2016 and 2019. Recent years have seen a series of hate crimes and deadly acts of violence against Asian Americans in the United States, occurring In-depth, evidence-based analysis of Japanese society, politics, economy and culture. For the reasons outlined above, it is imperative that Tokyo relinquishes its investments in Russian oil and gas projects. On March 4, many of the messages had been deleted. All opinions expressed in articles on Tokyo Review are those of the authors alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Tokyo Review or any partner organization. Western countries responded swiftly with plans to decouple from the Russian market, proposing alternative avenues for energy security such as the diversification of supplies in the short term and heavier dependence on renewable sources in the long term. I am simply scared.. Kobara said he feels crushed when he thinks about people in Ukraine. It is only when people are willing to risk their lives to fight that allies will join in and provide assistance. In this way, Japan would be able to establish stable relations along its northern frontier and neutralize the danger of Moscow and Beijing forging a united front against Japan. It was here, in what Abe described as his most memorable meeting with Putin, that the sides agreed to accelerate peace treaty talks based on the Soviet-Japan 1956 Joint Declaration. Compared to crude oil, procurement sources of LNG are more diversified, and its dependence on the Middle East is about 20 percent.
If the Russian invasion is not halted, obtaining a favorable cease-fire will be near impossible. Copyright 2017-2021 Tokyo Review. It is in Japans interest to divert funds destined for precarious Russian projects toward bolstering and diversifying its energy base. For this reason, in an international webinar held in early April, I said, Japan seems to be awakening, if not as awake as the Germans are.. Another notable feature to come out of the war in Ukraine was the new kind of information warfare employed by the United States. Moreover, in the long term, investing in human resources, infrastructure, technology, and research and development for innovation in renewable energy sources would both increase Japans energy independence and be more economically efficient. But we plan to keep our interests (in the two Sakhalin LNG projects) unchanged, Prime Minister Kishida told reporters following a virtual meeting of G7 leaders. Regarding crude oil, Japans dependence on Russia accounts for only 3.6 percent, but Japan imports about 90 percent of it from the Middle East, making Russia the largest import destination outside of that region. Russias invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was met with international condemnation as countries, led by the G7, began imposing sanctions against Russia. TAISUKE ABIRU is a senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. In that sense, the significance of Sakhalin-1 in terms of Japans energy security is not small. He also said he can never forgive Putin for his actions. The day before, Japan banned the issuance of Russian sovereign debt within Japan. She can be reached at wyl@nupi.no. Yet, from a foreign policy perspective, there is a silver lining. These are considerably less restrictive than measures introduced by other G7 members, yet they are still a sign that ties with Russia will not return to business-as-usual. ABOUT THE EDITOR But Kobara cringes every time he checks his social media accounts because he expects to see abusive remarks and unwarranted insults directed at him because of what his homeland has done. If Japan is committed to holding Russia accountable with economic and political pressure, then on principled grounds, it should fully abnegate any role in Russian energy projects. If that happens, the economic damage for Russia would be quite limited. The Asahi Shimbun on March 3 found more than 20 of these businesses had received abusive comments on the site. While Japan has joined the international sanctions regime and been vocal in its opposition to the war, it has yet to divest from joint oil and gas projects in the Russian island of Sakhalin, just north of Hokkaido. Brown is an associate professor of Political Science at Temple University, Japan Campus. Declining to do so would be to heap failure upon failure. Still, if Ukraine were a NATO member, Russia would not have likely been so bold as to invade. Vlas Kobara, a Russian YouTuber based in Japan, has denounced Moscows invasion of Ukraine and criticized President Vladimir Putin. Yennie Lindgren specializes in international relations in East Asia, Japanese foreign policy, East Asia-Arctic diplomacy, and security issues in the Asia-Pacific region.
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